Japan quake jolts auto output, Toyota may fall to No.3 (Reuters)

Monday, April 25, 2011 4:01 AM By dwi

TOKYO (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Co (7203.T) haw slip to No.3 in the maker creation rankings behindhand General Motors (GM.N) and Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) cod to Japan's earthquake and thermonuclear crisis, which slashed topical creation by nearly two-thirds in March alone.

A insufficiency of parts in the consequence of the March 11 earthquake and wave has savaged the Japan's machine sector cater chain, while alteration to a field thermonuclear plant has disrupted power supplies.

Investors expecting foreign rivals to goodness from a prolonged give in Asian creation pushed up shares in South Korea's Hyundai Motors (005380.KS) and assort Kia Motors (000270.KS) to achievement highs on Monday.

"Hyundai and Kia module be the biggest beneficiaries of the struggling Asian automobile industry," said Suh Sung-moon, an shrink at Korea Investment & Securities in Seoul.

"Hyundai module focus on the high-end market and Kia has the power to increase intensity shipments. It's a enthusiastic variety to grownup up with Asian rivals."

Honda Motor Co (7267.T), Japan's No.3 automaker, said on weekday it would verify until the end of the assemblage before creation returned to normal, ringing comments from Toyota on Friday.

Honda, which reported husbandly creation shrank 62.9 proportionality in March, said creation would be at 50 proportionality of its original plans until the end of June.

Domestic creation at Toyota, the world's largest automaker, lapse 62.7 proportionality in March, while Japan's No.2 Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) said its same amount lapse 52.4 percent.

Toyota is nearly destined to lose the top producer senior it has held since 2008 to General Motors this assemblage and could start behindhand No.3 Volkswagen, said Koji Endo, managing administrator of Advanced Research Nihon in Tokyo.

Toyota, which oversubscribed 8.42 meg vehicles last assemblage versus GM's 8.39 million, was on road to post income of around 6.5 meg units this year, Endo said. Other analysts, lacking clear counselling from Toyota, wait income of roughly 6.3-7 meg units.

"Most probable GM module display 8 million-plus and Volkswagen module display around 7 million, so most probable Toyota module be third, GM module be first," Endo said.

Volkswagen has a stated content of attractive Toyota's No.1 blot and expects its 2011 income to top the achievement 7.14 meg vehicles it oversubscribed last year.

Toyota, criticized by whatever analysts and investors for its aggressive treatment in the early 2000s, played downbound the prospect of losing its top ranking.

"When Toyota became No. 1 there were no champagne corks feat off here," said Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco. The March income were the poorest since records began in 1988, he added.

NO CLARITY

Japanese automakers hit not prognosticate what impact the creation cuts module hit on earnings, but analysts hit been slashing their forecasts since the disaster.

For Toyota, 11 analysts who revised their forecasts after the earthquake prognosticate an cipher operating profit of 281.9 1000000000 yearning for the assemblage to March 2012.

That is downbound 65 proportionality from the consensus of 804 1000000000 yearning from 21 analysts before the quake, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Toyota announces its results on May 11, but it is not destined if it module wage its possess forecast.

"In foreign markets consumers hit choices and (non-Japanese makers) probably module verify whatever share, but I think it is an unstoppered question if those module be sustainable or temporary deal changes -- my surmisal is that they module run to be temporary," said Christopher Richter, an machine shrink at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Tokyo.

Shares in field Asian automakers were slightly weaker on Monday, with Toyota success downbound 0.6 percent, Honda downbound 1.3 proportionality and Nissan 1.8 proportionality lower. The main Nikkei finger (.N225) closed downbound 0.1 percent.

Tokyo's instrumentation equipment sub-index (.ITEQP.T) has bounced about 14 proportionality from its post-quake low, but is ease more than 6 proportionality beneath where it was before the hardship struck.

In contrast, Hyundai has surged 30 proportionality over the same punctuation on expectations it module goodness from the woes of its Asian rivals. Hyundai shares jumped 5.6 proportionality to a achievement broad on Monday, while Kia shares also hit a record, up 3.2 percent.

"These are good times for South Asiatic automobile makers. They module acquire market share, improve utilization rates," said Park Jong-min, a money manager at ING Investment Management in Seoul. "They module also reduce incentives, which module support revilement costs."

Hyundai and Kia were No.5 by compounded global income last year.

The hardship has been a field setback for the world's third-largest economy, with exports dropping faster than prognosticate in March and industrialized creation accumulation cod on weekday due to exhibit a achievement decline. Some economists wait industrialized creation to start as much as a quarter, month-on-month, in March.

Standard & Poor's revilement its looking on sextet field Asian automakers and suppliers to negative from stable on Monday.

"In our opinion, long creation cuts haw erode Asian automakers' market shares and competitive positions in the longer term," S&P said.

The start in Asian vehicle creation has fed through to field poise suppliers, weighing on profits and prospects for companies, including JFE Holdings (5411.T).

Production has also been disrupted outside Japan, with factories in Europe, North USA and the rest of Asia ordering back cod to parts shortages.

"I think Nissan and Honda are more or less in the same situation in terms of danger to the disaster. As such, GM, author (F.N), and Hyundai would be the biggest beneficiaries in North USA on the premises they crapper encounter easy replacement for parts previously supplied by the Japanese," said altruist Zhang, managing administrator of business consultancy Automotive Foresight (Shanghai) Co.

Uncertainty on the earnings looking is probable to linger well into the financial year, which started on Apr 1.

Many companies are due to refrain from gift 2012 earnings counselling during the current fourth lodge news season and those that do are due to makeup a cold picture.

(Additional news by Hyunjoo Jin in SEOUL and Fang Yan in BEIJING; Writing by attorney Feast; Editing by histrion Yates)


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