Auto production faces bigger hit after Japan quake (Reuters)

Monday, April 25, 2011 6:01 PM By dwi

TOKYO (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Co haw artefact to No. 3 in the maker creation rankings behind General Motors and Volkswagen cod to Japan's seism and thermonuclear crisis, which slashed local creation by nearly two-thirds in March alone.

A insufficiency of parts in the consequence of the March 11 seism and wave has savaged Japan's machine sector cater chain, patch alteration to a field thermonuclear being has disrupted noesis supplies.

Investors expecting foreign rivals to goodness from a prolonged give in Asian creation pushed up shares in South Korea's Hyundai Motors and associate Kia Motors to achievement highs on Monday.

In Nihon and North America, Hyundai, GM and author Motor Co stand to be the large winners, analysts said, because of Hyundai's ingrained small-car roster and GM and Ford's growing and improved small-car lineups.

Honda Motor Co, Japan's No. 3 maker and fourth-biggest in the U.S. market, said on weekday it would verify until the modify of the assemblage before creation returned to normal, echoing past comments from Toyota.

Honda, which reported husbandly creation shrank 63 proportionality in March, said creation would be at 50 proportionality of its example plans until the modify of June.

Domestic creation at Toyota, the world's maximal automaker, plummeted 63 proportionality in March, patch Japan's No. 2 Nissan Motor Co said its corresponding figure fell 52 percent. Nissan is No. 6 in the U.S. market.

On Monday, author said it would idle plants in Taiwan, China, and South continent this week, pushing up closings it had scheduled for after in the year. Two weeks ago, the company signaled it would probable shut plants in aggregation play in New April and feat into May.

Ford did not feature whether the lost creation would be made up later, or if it would change its orbicular creation prognosticate for 2011.

Toyota is nearly destined to retrograde its crowning blot in orbicular machine production, a title it attained in 2008 by reordering General Motors. GM looks aforementioned it module motion into the crowning blot and Toyota could start behind Volkswagen, which is currently No. 3, said Koji Endo, managing director of Advanced Research Nihon in Tokyo.

Toyota, which oversubscribed 8.42 meg vehicles terminal assemblage versus GM's 8.39 million, was on road to place income of around 6.5 meg units this year, Endo said. Other analysts, lacking clear guidance from Toyota, wait income of roughly 6.3 meg to 7 meg units.

"Most probable GM module display 8 million-plus and Volkswagen module display around 7 million, so most probable Toyota module be third, GM module be first," Endo said.

Volkswagen has a stated goal of attractive Toyota's No. 1 blot and expects its 2011 income to crowning the achievement 7.14 meg vehicles it oversubscribed terminal year.

Toyota played downbound the prospect of losing its crowning ranking.

"When Toyota became No. 1 there were no champagne corks feat soured here," said Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco. The March income were the worst since records began in 1988, he added.

Standard & Poor's after revilement its outlook on sextet field Asian automakers and suppliers to "negative" from "stable."

Johnson Controls Inc, digit of the world's maximal machine suppliers, on weekday sticking a drop in third-quarter income of $500 meg cod to the falloff on Asian machine production.

Production has also been disrupted outside Japan, as factories in Europe, North USA and the rest of aggregation scale back cod to parts shortages.

However, the effect on creation is secondary qualifying to the halving of Japan's moving creation during the calendar second lodge seen by whatever analysts, including Brian President of Barclays Capital.

Johnson said he expects Asian machine creation to drop by 50 proportionality in the second quarter, to be nearby connatural in the ordinal quarter, and display more than connatural in the fourth quarter.

NO CLARITY

Japanese automakers impact not prognosticate what effect the creation cuts module impact on earnings, but analysts impact been slashing forecasts since the disaster.

For Toyota, 11 analysts who revised their forecasts after the seism premeditated an cipher operating profit of 281.9 1000000000 yearning ($3.44 billion) for the assemblage to March 2012.

That is downbound 65 proportionality from the consensus of 804 1000000000 yearning from 21 analysts before the quake, according to composer Reuters I/B/E/S. Toyota module announce its results on May 11, but it is not destined if it module provide its possess forecast.

"In foreign markets, consumers impact choices and (non-Japanese makers) belike module verify whatever share, but I think it is an open discourse if those module be sustainable or temporary deal changes -- my guess is that they module run to be temporary," said Christopher Richter, an machine shrink at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Tokyo.

Shares in field Asian automakers were weaker on Monday, with Toyota success downbound 0.6 percent, Honda downbound 1.3 proportionality and Nissan 1.8 proportionality lower. The important Nikkei finger winking soured 0.1 percent.

Tokyo's transport equipment sub-index has bounced about 14 proportionality from its post-quake low, but is ease more than 6 proportionality below where it was before the hardship struck.

In contrast, Hyundai has surged 30 proportionality over the aforementioned punctuation on expectations it module goodness from the woes of its Asian rivals. Hyundai shares jumped 5.6 proportionality to a achievement high on Monday, patch Kia shares also impact a record, up 3.2 percent.

"These are beatific nowadays for South Asiatic car makers. They module gain mart share, improve utilization rates," said Park Jong-min, a fund manager at ING Investment Management in Seoul. "They module also turn incentives, which module support revilement costs."

Hyundai and Kia were No. 5 by compounded orbicular income terminal year.

The hardship has been a field setback for the world's third-largest economy, with exports falling faster than prognosticate in March and industrialized creation accumulation cod on weekday due to show a achievement decline. Some economists wait industrialized creation to start as such as a quarter, month on month, in March.

The start in Asian container creation has fed finished to field steel suppliers, consideration on profits and prospects for companies, including JFE Holdings.

Many companies are due to refrain from gift 2012 earnings guidance during the underway Nihon fourth lodge news season and those that do are due to makeup a cold picture.

(Additional news by Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul, Bantu Yan in Beijing and Deepa Seetharaman and Bernie Woodall in Detroit; Writing by Lincoln Feast; Editing by histrion Yates, Maureen Bavdek and Matthew Lewis)


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