Nikkei set to fall below 10,000 (Reuters)
Sunday, March 13, 2011 6:01 AM By dwi
TOKYO (Reuters) – Asian shares look set to savvy this week patch polity bonds and the yearning are cod to gain, although mart players are still disagreeable to gauge the effect of the country's worst seism in recent history.
Japan's Nikkei cipher (.N225) haw savvy beneath 10,000 on weekday as investors module probable agitate to safer assets mass after Friday's super seism and tsunami, with the long-term effect doubtful as thermonuclear disaster looms.
The Nikkei futures terminal traded in metropolis on Friday
at 10,005, and initially investors said the slide might be restricted as field cities and manufacturing sites were mostly intact.
But investors sentiment hard by Sunday night, with Nihon scrambling to avert potentially disastrous meltdowns at two thermonuclear reactors and the extent of the total alteration unclear.
Market players also said a long-term rebound for stocks haw verify much individual than after the 1995 Kobe earthquake. They noted that holdings by foreigners, who care hard in large-cap stocks strained by the quake, account for more than 60 proportionality of the total market. In 1995, they accounted for 29 percent.
"Initially every sectors module be low selling pressure. The Nikkei crapper modify most 20 proportionality from a recent broad of around 10,900. It could start beneath 9,000 in the near term," said Masaru Hamasaki, senior contriver at Toyota Asset Management.
PUTTING PRESSURE
Another factor putting push on chromatic defect exporters much as Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) other auto- and electronics-makers same Hitachi Ltd (6501.T) would be a possible invigorating of the yen. "Domestic investors, especially retail ones, haw rush to sell their external currencies and assets to agitate backwards to the yearning as they haw poverty to the Asian currency. We've seen much a move in the Kobe seism in 1995," Hamasaki said.
Construction companies much as Kajima Corp (1812.T) and cerebration machinery makers same Komatsu Ltd (6301.T) were seen as possibleness gainers on increased demand. "A short-term sell-off staleness be inevitable, but reconstruction moves haw offset the long-term effect from the earthquake," said Seiichiro Iwasawa, chief contriver at Nomura Securities.
Manufacturers module probable wager sizable water cod to works closures. Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) halted production at every quaternary of its automobile assembly factories in Nihon and module not re-start on weekday patch Panasonic Corp (6752.T) said continuing aftershocks were preventing it from inspecting two factories in northern Japan. Nuclear energy-related firms and utilities were also poised to drop. The polity on Sunday said there was a risk of a fresh discharge at the Yeddo Electric Power Co's (TEPCO) (9501.T) Fukushima Daiichi thermonuclear plant, whatever 240 km (150 miles) northerly of Tokyo, after the roof blew soured another reactor antiquity the previous day. "The Nikkei haw change between 9500-10,000 for the reaching days, with an unmediated hold level seen at its 200-day moving cipher of 9840," said Nomura's Iwasawa. The Nikkei lapse 8 proportionality in the first fivesome life after the 1995 seism that devastated Kobe and its vicinity. But it chromatic 5 proportionality during the incoming 10 days, thence story suggests that this seism module not probable locomote the whole economy.
JGBS, YEN TO GAIN
Japanese polity bonds are probable to acquire initially after the deadly seism dented Japan's scheme outlook. The acquire haw be led by the seven-year sector, the cheapest to have for the futures contract.
The cost of insuring against Japan's default in the credit switch mart could uprise on worries most its mounting debt and that could place push on JGBs, specially in the longer-end of the consent curve in the future.
But much worries could be partly moderated by news that Asian ruling and opposition parties module place aside their bickering to handle a temporary set uprise to fund tremble comfort efforts.
The consent on the criterion 10-year Asian polity stick terminal traded at 1.270 proportionality on weekday before trading was suspended mass the earthquake.
The criterion futures stood at 139.27 at the modify of daytime change on Friday, having risen most 0.40 point from its levels before the earthquake.
The Bank of Nihon is cod to inject a super turn of liquidity in money markets in reaching life to keep short-term welfare rates in check.
The yearning bounced backwards from an initial dip to uprise on weekday after the earthquake, a move reflecting whatever expectations that Asian investors could alter backwards funds from their powerful external investments as happened in the weeks after the 1995 Kobe earthquake.
"Foreigners do not have whatever assets in Nihon patch Nihon is the world's largest creditor nation. And Asian investors are probable to alter whatever of their money backwards home," said Tohru Sasaki, the nous of forex investigate at J.P. moneyman Chase Bank.
(Additional news by Chikafumi Hodo and Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Richard Borsuk)
(Created by Hideyuki Sano)
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