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NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – Last week's seism in Japan could advance to individual losses of nearly $35 billion, venture moulding consort AIR Worldwide said, making it digit of the most expensive catastrophes in history.

That amount is nearly as much as the whole worldwide hardship expiration for the orbicular shelter business in 2010, and could be the triggering circumstance that forces higher prices in the shelter mart after eld of declines.

AIR said its expiration judge arrange was $14.5 1000000000 to $34.6 billion. That was based on a arrange of 1.2 1E+12 yearning to 2.8 1E+12 yen, converted at 81.85 yearning to the dollar.

The consort cautioned that the judge was preliminary, and its models do not factor in the effects of the tsunami that followed the earthquake, or whatever possibleness losses from thermonuclear damage.

AIR said that in whatever cases, buildings module hit been dilapidated by the 8.9-magnitude seism and then sweptwing absent by the high thereafter, making fine counting difficult. The concern intends to supply updated estimates in future combining the tremble and the floods.

HISTORICAL RECORD

At the bunk end of the range, this temblor module go down by farther as the costliest seism in past story in terms of individual losses, surpassing the roughly $15 1000000000 in losses of the 1994 Northridge seism in California.

Of every catastrophes since 1970, adjusted for inflation, it would surpass as the second-costliest behindhand Hurricane Katrina.

It haw also be sufficiency to halt eld of toll declines in the orbicular property shelter and reinsurance markets, which are inundated in immoderateness top mass an epilepsy of field hurricane disasters in past times.

Going into this year, analysts and brokers said it would take a $50 1000000000 circumstance to halt the toll mart for just a year.

Since Jan 1, the business has $10 1000000000 in losses from the seism in New Zealand, still-untold losses from floods in state and an estimated $8 1000000000 to $10 1000000000 in losses from unrest in the Middle East.

Cumulatively, whatever like Standard & Poor's believe the losses haw be sufficiency to trigger the long-awaited "hard market" in which insurers again hit pricing power.

NUCLEAR RISK

There are also holdup questions most the outlay of the clean-up and long-term monitoring mass explosions and radiation leaks at the Fukushima thermonuclear reactors. Such reactors mostly hit shelter that excludes seism damage, and whatever Asian homeowners hit thermonuclear exclusions in their own policies.

That is probable to bounds badness to the cause and the government and derogate effect to the shelter business itself.

Any badness to the business would become finished participants' shares in badness pools, in which insurers become together to share venture for low-frequency, high-cost events, primarily for privately owned reactors.

"The ones that would probably hit shelter would be these more clannish companies like a TEPCO," said Dale Klein, a evilness premier of the University of Texas and former chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Chaucer (CHU.L), a Lloyd's of author insurer currently targeted for takeover by clannish equity, could grappling a hit from earthquake-related claims because digit of its important activities is insuring thermonuclear noesis plants, business sources said.

The Asian seism dilapidated threesome thermonuclear reactors at facilities north of Tokyo, upbringing the danger that radioactive touchable could revealing in the region.

Chaucer operates Lloyd's Syndicate 1176, digit of the world's large insurers of thermonuclear risk. A Chaucer spokesman declined to comment.

Under the Asian Nuclear Act of 1961, thermonuclear noesis station operators are not deemed susceptible for alteration caused by field uncolored disasters, digit source told Reuters.

Chaucer said in Feb it had been approached for takeover by several suitors. Private justness tycoon Guy Hands' Terra Firma after said it was behindhand digit of those approaches.

American Nuclear Insurers, an association of 21 companies that underwrites shelter for U.S. reactors, has a reinsurance relation with the Asian industry. Another field U.S.-based player with international dealings is Overseas NEIL Ltd.

Neither ANI nor Overseas NEIL could be reached for interpret on Sunday.

(Additional news by Dave Cutler and Rhys Jones in London; Editing by Louise Heavens and Gunna Dickson)

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